What if the skills crisis is just a bogeyman, like the Great Dung Crisis of 1894?

Contents:

• Opinion one: the crisis is already here — and we need to solve the problem now
• Opinion two: there is no real crisis and there won't be one

Opinion one: the crisis is already here - and the problem needs to be solved now

Futurologist and business strategy consultant Bernard In his LinkedIn blog (accessible outside of Russia), Marr emphasizes that the impending crisis is driven not only by the development of new Web 3.0 technologies such as blockchain, virtual reality, and artificial intelligence, but also by a shortage of qualified specialists in these fields. This creates serious challenges for businesses seeking to adapt to new conditions and leverage advanced technologies to improve efficiency and competitiveness. A shortage of experts can slow the implementation of innovative solutions and negatively impact organizational development, requiring the attention of companies preparing to transition to new technological trends.

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According to preliminary estimates, only 20,000 developers are employed in Web 3.0, which is an insignificant number compared to the number of specialists in Web 2. At the same time, there's a high demand for web3 skills, highlighting the need for professionals capable of working with new technologies and tools in this field.

Bernard's position echoes that of other experts: the acute skills shortage is caused by the rapid advancement of technology. The problem isn't just a shortage of specialists capable of developing new technologies, but also the fact that many lack the skills to effectively use existing tools. This highlights the need for training and advanced training to adapt to the demands of the modern labor market.

A report from the educational platform edX, based on a survey of 800 executives, including CEOs, in 2023, presents key data: 49% of today's skills will become obsolete by 2025, while 47% of workers are unprepared for such changes. This phenomenon is due to the introduction of generative artificial intelligence and the rapid development of work tools based on its technologies. In a rapidly changing labor market, it is essential to adapt and develop skills that meet new demands. Educational platforms play a key role in preparing professionals for future challenges by offering relevant courses and training programs.

Upskilling and continuous retraining have become crucial aspects in the context of the skills crisis. Bernard Marr highlights key areas such as programming, augmented and virtual reality product development, data analytics, and cybersecurity. He emphasizes the need for companies to attract new talent and develop their HR brand, as well as regularly upgrade the skills of existing employees, including those not directly related to technology development. This is due to the emergence of new roles, such as virtual event organizers and ethics consultants. In the context of rapid technological progress, it is important to adapt to changes and actively invest in staff training and development.

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Personal development of employees has become a standard in modern companies, along with Vacation and flexible work schedules. This is an important aspect that contributes not only to the development of professional skills but also to the overall team climate. Investing in training and development increases employee motivation, which in turn leads to increased productivity and business efficiency. In a constantly changing labor market, companies that support employee development initiatives gain a competitive advantage and sustainable growth. Expert advice on training and development has much in common, although it differs in detail. Gina Jeneroo, Professor of Practice at the International Business University in Canada, recommends that HR and learning and development (L&D) professionals focus on data analytics and modern technologies. This will help create skill taxonomies and effectively track the needs of both employees and the organization as a whole. Jeneroo also calls for the implementation of more flexible interaction structures and the strengthening of horizontal ties within companies. This will improve communication and increase team effectiveness, which in turn will contribute to the development of corporate culture and increased competitiveness.

Real businesses seem to have not yet fully grasped and appreciated the scale of the crisis and the threats it poses. For example, Jonathan Taba, director of HR practice at the consulting company Gartner, emphasizes that only a small percentage of companies are actually implementing new practices and approaches to work. The rest will likely begin this process only in five to six years. This underscores the need for a more proactive transition to innovative methods of management and personnel development to remain competitive in a changing market.

This approach may seem unusual, especially given the forecasts provided. However, some experts argue that there is no need to panic and rush to retrain all staff. This is understandable, since even in the field of corporate training, the transition to new technologies and formats is slow. Over the past ten years, changes have been minimal, despite active discussions about innovation. It's important to remember that adapting to new methods takes time and careful planning.

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EdTech tools for effective employee skills management: new recommendations

Modern companies are faced with the need to optimize their employees' skills management. In response, new recommendations for the use of EdTech tools have emerged. These tools assist not only in training but also in assessing competencies, allowing companies to improve the productivity and adaptability of their teams.

Among the key recommendations is the implementation of online learning platforms that provide access to up-to-date courses and materials. The use of analytical tools allows for tracking employee progress and identifying areas for improvement. It is also important to consider individual employee needs and offer personalized training programs.

Effective skills management using EdTech tools contributes to the creation of a more competitive and qualified workforce, which in turn impacts the company's overall success. By following these new guidelines, organizations can significantly improve their performance and prepare their employees for the challenges of the modern market.

Opinion two: There really is no crisis and there won't be one

In an episode of the British podcast Lively and Disagreeable, learning and development (L&D) experts Nick Shackleton-Jones and Guy Wallace discussed the skills crisis. They examined how real this threat really is. Nick Shackleton-Jones believed that panic was misplaced. He drew an analogy with the Great Dung Crisis of 1894, when The Times newspaper predicted that in 50 years London's streets would be littered with horse manure due to population growth and the increase in vehicles. However, in practice, 50 years later, the streets were filled with cars, not horses. This example highlights that, despite current concerns, technology and innovation can change the future and solve emerging problems.

The future skills crisis resembles a situation where everyone is asking, "What should we do?" The answer is that a crisis like the horse manure crisis never happened thanks to the introduction of machines. We have also created artificial intelligence and productivity-enhancing systems that can reduce the need for human skills. This assumption may be worrying, but in a highly competitive environment, organizations need to minimize their reliance on employee upskilling. Otherwise, they risk significantly increasing costs and hiring too many highly skilled specialists, which is not always justified.

Nick cited the example of Uber, which operates successfully thanks to GPS technology. Previously, taxi drivers were required to have perfect knowledge of the city map, which required significant effort and time for training. Modern technology has radically changed this situation, providing drivers with precise directions and routes, significantly simplifying the process and increasing the efficiency of the taxi service. The use of GPS systems not only makes life easier for drivers, but also improves the quality of customer service, ensuring quick and safe arrival at the destination.

Nick's idea is based on the idea that instead of constantly training and retraining employees, we should focus on maintaining their productivity using effective tools, including artificial intelligence. Nick takes a radical position, believing that training should be eliminated from work processes. He also emphasizes the importance of hiring people with fewer existing skills but with high potential for development and achieving outstanding results. This approach, according to the expert, will help employees avoid the negative consequences of future crises and successfully adapt to changing market conditions.

Guy Wallace also shares this point of view, emphasizing that the "skills mania" that arose in response to fears of a potential crisis is neither new nor potentially dangerous. Two or three decades ago, there was a cult of competence in training, and 40 years ago, a cult of behavior. Regardless of the name of the current "mania," the emphasis in this discussion shifts to the perceived lack of various resources, such as skills, competencies, and knowledge, instead of focusing on the real results that training should produce. It is important to understand that effective training should aim not only to fill gaps, but also to create sustainable change and improve productivity.

In the early 1980s, Motorola sought to train its factory employees to use computers, which at that time were truly a technological novelty and not widely available. Guy, one of the employees, wondered what exactly the workers needed to learn. However, his managers lacked a clear answer to this question and were unable to formulate a specific training objective. Their only desire was for employees to gain a general understanding of computers and then independently determine how to apply this innovation in their work.

Guy Wallace emphasizes the importance of providing people with basic, general-purpose skills and then the opportunity to apply them in a specific work environment with feedback. Without this, most employees will be unable to effectively adapt abstract knowledge to real-world tasks or will spend additional resources on it, which will reduce the effectiveness of skill transfer. However, it is worth noting that turning skills into an end in themselves is not the optimal approach. It is important to focus on the practical application of knowledge to achieve real-world results.

A recent survey conducted among a Russian audience revealed that both employers and job seekers do not view skills in using artificial intelligence and machine learning services as the most valuable or a priority for acquisition. This is surprising, given that many experts claim a growing need for such tools in various professional fields. However, most people are skeptical about this. This highlights the gap between theoretical expectations and actual needs in the labor market.