What global trends will impact the labor market by 2030: World Economic Forum forecast

Contents:

• First: What trends are shaping the future of the labor market
• How artificial intelligence will change people's work
• What exactly might happen to jobs
• What workers will be needed and who will be laid off
• What skills will be most in demand
• How employers plan to retrain employees

For starters: what trends are shaping the future of the labor market

Experts from the World Economic Forum (WEF) conducted a survey among employers and compiled a list of key global trends in economics, politics, and technology. Company representatives assessed how these trends could affect their business by 2030. The identified changes could have a significant impact on organizations' development strategies and their competitiveness in the future.

Among the key economic trends are the rising cost of living, noted by 50% of respondents, and a slowdown in economic growth, indicated by 42%. In addition, almost half of company representatives (47%) pointed to the impact of measures to reduce carbon emissions. These factors play a significant role in shaping the modern economic landscape and require careful analysis for effective business management.

Employers expect a significant impact of geopolitical tensions and conflicts on business processes, as stated by 34% of respondents. Also, 23% note that restrictions on trade and investment between countries can have a serious impact on the economic situation.

Expectations of this trend vary depending on the industry. In the automotive and aerospace sectors, 46% of respondents expect restrictions to have a negative impact on supply chains. At the same time, in the mining industry, this figure reaches 55%. In the education sector, the impact of restrictions on trade and investment is assessed significantly lower: only 14% of respondents consider this an important trend.

Assessments of demographic trends vary significantly. One list concentrates on opposing trends: there is an aging population and a decline in the number of workers, which is noted by 40% of participants, and at the same time, an expansion of the working-age population, as indicated by 24%. These conflicting trends highlight the complexity of the demographic situation and the need to adapt to new conditions in the labor market.

Employers around the world are voting on conflicting demographic trends. While developed countries are experiencing population decline, many countries in the Global South are facing the opposite problem. According to World Bank forecasts, cited by experts from the World Economic Forum, over the next ten years, 1.2 billion young people will enter the labor market in developing countries, while only about 420 million jobs will be created. This creates a significant imbalance that requires the attention of governments and businesses to find ways to address the problem of employment and economic growth.

Revised text:

Explore additional materials:

Analysts at McKinsey analyzed the impact of the demographic crisis on the education system on a global scale. Population decline and the aging of societies create new challenges for educational institutions. These changes are expected to result in significant transformations in educational methods, the structure of curricula, and the need for qualified personnel. With declining student numbers, schools and universities will be forced to adapt to new realities by implementing innovative approaches and technologies. This will require educational institutions to reconsider student recruitment strategies and develop educational programs that meet the demands of the modern labor market. The importance of continuous education and professional development will also increase, allowing people to adapt to a rapidly changing world.

According to the employers surveyed, technological trends will have the most significant impact on the labor market. Expanding access to digital technologies is a key area. This trend was highlighted by 60% of study participants, who expect digitalization to transform their business by 2030. Therefore, companies must prepare to implement new technologies and adapt to change to remain competitive in the market.

According to the results of the new survey, all trends received fewer votes in 2023 compared to similar data from the previous year. For example, 86% of respondents noted expanding access to digital technologies as a key trend. Over the past two years, companies across industries have felt the impact of a variety of trends, making it challenging to identify the most significant developments for the future of work. In the current environment, many factors appear important and significant, making it difficult to predict future changes in the labor market.

How Artificial Intelligence Will Change the Way People Work

Survey participants for the new report were specifically asked about the impact of current technology trends.

Artificial intelligence led the way among technologies expected to transform business, with 86% of respondents predicting its significant impact on their companies. In some industries, such as the financial sector, 97% of respondents are confident in the transformative potential of AI. In electronics manufacturing, this figure is 95%, and in education, 91%. The development and implementation of AI opens new horizons for optimizing business processes, increasing efficiency, and improving service quality.

The next most popular technological trend, robotics and automation, was noted as influential by only 58% of respondents. Third place on the list is occupied by innovations in energy generation, storage, and distribution, cited by 41% of respondents.

Survey participants and experts from the World Economic Forum (WEF) note the significant impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on the labor market. Half of employers plan to adapt their business models in line with the development of AI. Two-thirds of respondents intend to hire specialists with AI skills. At the same time, 40% of employers expect staff reductions as a result of the automation of routine tasks. This underscores the importance of preparing employees for new requirements and upskilling them in a rapidly changing labor market.

The report's authors cite research confirming that artificial intelligence can significantly enhance the skills of specialists across various industries. Accountants and teaching assistants are expected to be able to solve more complex expert tasks using AI. At the same time, professionals in complex and dynamic fields, such as medicine and engineering, will be able to use AI to gain relevant information and knowledge in their field. Thus, artificial intelligence is becoming an important tool for developing professional skills and improving the efficiency of specialists.

The World Economic Forum emphasizes that the use of artificial intelligence tools as assistants represents a potential opportunity. Realizing this potential depends on many factors, including well-thought-out technology policy. Otherwise, the opposite trend may arise, with machines replacing human labor. It is important to consider this aspect to ensure the harmonious coexistence of technology and human capital.

According to respondents, by 2030, the number of tasks performed exclusively by humans in their fields will significantly decrease. This means that the share of work that cannot be done without hardware or software, or that machines can do without human intervention, will increase. It is important to note that this trend requires people to master new skills related to the use of modern software.

According to employer surveys, today almost half of work tasks (47%) are performed exclusively by humans. At the same time, 22% of tasks are performed by machines, and 30% are a combination of humans and technology. Forecasts for 2030 indicate that these three categories will tend to be equal. The share of tasks performed exclusively by humans is expected to decrease by almost 15%, and in the education sector, by 18%. At the same time, the share of fully automated processes will increase significantly, highlighting the importance of adapting to changes in the work environment and the need to upskill employees.

In a 2023 World Economic Forum (WEF) report, artificial intelligence (AI) was noted as a technology that more than 75% of surveyed companies plan to implement by 2027 for data analytics and content generation. However, at that time, AI was not considered a key technological trend with the potential to significantly change the labor market. In the new report, his mention in this role may indicate a reaction to the rapid development of generative neural networks in recent years. It is important to note that at the current stage, the assessment of the impact of AI on labor activity may be exaggerated, and it is possible that its implementation will not lead to significant changes in people's work.

Read Also:

The skills crisis may be nothing more than a myth, similar to the Great Manure Crisis of 1894. While society was grappling with the problems associated with the overuse of manure, panic led to a search for alternative solutions, which ultimately contributed to the development of new technologies and improved living conditions. Likewise, current fears about a skills shortage may be exaggerated. Perhaps the skills crisis will spur innovation and adaptation of educational systems, ultimately leading to a more prepared and highly skilled workforce. Instead of panicking, it is worth considering using this period to rethink approaches to training and skills development.

What Exactly Might Happen to Jobs

Employers carefully analyzed each trend in terms of its impact on job creation and destruction within their organizations. According to analysts' final estimates, 22% of current jobs in the global labor market are expected to change. The creation of 170 million new jobs is projected, accounting for 14% of existing ones, while job losses will affect 92 million positions, or 8%. Thus, the overall effect will be positive: employment will grow by 7%, equivalent to 78 million new jobs. These data highlight the importance of businesses adapting to the new labor market realities and the need to invest in employee training and development. Two years ago, at the Eastern Economic Forum (EEF), a decline in employment was expected. However, current respondents' forecasts have changed. If we combine the opinions of those who believe that new trends will lead to job creation and those who predict job losses, the conclusion is that most trends will ultimately lead to an increase in the number of vacancies. Employers note that the only factors that could have a definitively negative impact on the labor market are slower economic growth and the process of robotization. Artificial intelligence (AI) remains a controversial trend, perceived as both a threat to jobs and a tool for their creation. Ultimately, 1.8 million new jobs are projected to be created thanks to AI development.

Which workers will be needed and which will be cut

Survey participants selected from a wide range of professional roles those they believed were most important to their organizations. They assessed which occupations would be stable, which expected growth, and which were likely to decline over the next five years. Based on these assessments and International Labor Organization data on the global distribution of workers by occupation, the World Economic Forum analyzed which occupations will grow and which may face stagnation through 2030. This analysis helps understand the labor market outlook and prepare for changes in the professional environment.

Among the professions with expected growth in demand, roles in the "green economy" stand out. These professions include engineers in renewable energy, environmental protection, and specialists in electric and autonomous vehicles. According to experts from the World Economic Forum (WEF), hiring levels in these professions remained stable even during the pandemic, when the overall labor market was experiencing a downturn. However, these professions are not widespread. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) report on education trends also highlights the growth of the "green economy." However, over the past ten years, the share of workers in this field in total employment in the US and Europe has increased by only 2%.

In recent years, there has been a significant increase in demand for digital security professionals, driven by the rise of online threats. Security specialists remain in demand, but other areas also deserve special attention. According to forecasts, the greatest growth is expected among big data specialists, fintech engineers, and machine learning specialists—this segment could grow by more than 80%. More than 40% of respondents also predict an increase in demand for data warehouse specialists, UI and UX designers, IoT experts, data analysts, and data scientists. In education, there is also growing interest in artificial intelligence and machine learning specialists, as well as those involved in the digital transformation of the educational process. These trends highlight the importance of training qualified personnel in a rapidly changing digital world.

Reworked text:

Explore additional materials:

Generative Artificial Intelligence (AI) According to a McKinsey study, the development of generative AI will significantly impact the skills and training of IT personnel. The introduction of generative AI into IT will change the requirements for professional competencies, emphasizing creativity, analytical thinking, and adaptability. IT professionals will be forced to develop new skills, such as working with AI tools, data management, and cybersecurity. Training will become more dynamic and practice-oriented, emphasizing an interdisciplinary approach. Companies will need to revise their training programs to incorporate current technologies and methods, which will help IT personnel remain competitive. Importantly, generative AI not only automates certain processes but also opens up new horizons for innovation, requiring constant updating of knowledge and skills.

Therefore, the impact of generative AI on the skills and training of IT personnel will be significant, creating new opportunities for professional growth and development in the rapidly evolving digital landscape.

It should be noted that these are niche professions. The popularization of these specialties may lead to negative consequences similar to the situation in China. There, universities have begun to graduate more specialists in artificial intelligence than the labor market requires. As a result, graduates are finding it difficult to find jobs in their field, despite the active development of this industry. This emphasizes the importance of balancing educational programs with real market needs to avoid an oversupply of qualified personnel and ensure the successful employment of graduates.

In absolute terms, the greatest increase in the number of workers is expected in manual labor and in the "last mile." The creation of 35 million new jobs is projected in agriculture, as well as in the food industry and construction. One occupation that will grow by a significant percentage (over 40%), creating millions of new jobs, is delivery drivers. Notably, the widespread adoption of driverless cars by 2030 is not predicted, contributing to robust demand for this occupation. Furthermore, due to demographic changes, high demand is expected for social professions. In countries with aging populations, the need for nurses, caregivers, and social workers will increase, while in regions with high birth rates, the need for teachers and lecturers will increase. Forecasts for occupations experiencing declining demand remain valid. Significant job losses are expected for cashiers and ticket takers, with a decrease of nearly 14 million. Secretaries are also among those with declining demand. In percentage terms, the demand for postal workers, bank tellers, and data entry operators will decline most significantly. These changes demonstrate the trends of automation and digitalization that are impacting the labor market.

A World Economic Forum (WEF) report for the first time included roles requiring non-routine intellectual activity, such as graphic designers and legal secretaries, among the occupations with a projected decline in demand. This demonstrates the significant impact of generative artificial intelligence on employer demands and the formation of new trends in the labor market. With technology advancing rapidly, it's important to adapt to change and be aware of which professions may become less relevant in the future.

Read also:

Online courses for older people are A promising niche. Given the growing interest in learning and self-development in older adults, such courses can meet the needs of this audience. Modern technologies allow older adults to master new skills, gain knowledge, and develop hobbies without leaving home.

Furthermore, the online format offers flexibility, which is especially important for people who may have various time or health constraints. Developing courses tailored to the interests and needs of the older generation can significantly improve their quality of life and level of social engagement.

Thus, creating and promoting online courses for seniors can become not only a profitable business, but also an important contribution to the development of educational opportunities for this category of the population.

Which skills will be most in demand?

Survey participants were asked to predict which skills will be in demand in their companies over the next five years, and to assess whether they will become more or less relevant, or whether demand will remain the same. Based on the responses received, the World Economic Forum compiled a ranking of the skills that, according to employers, will be most in demand. The list is led by:

• of course, AI and big data (87% expect demand to grow);
• computer networks and cybersecurity (70%);
• technological literacy (68%).

Among the skills whose demand will continue to grow, soft competencies stand out, such as creative thinking, resilience, adaptability, curiosity and a desire to learn, as well as leadership qualities and social influence. These skills have long been recognized, but their importance is only increasing in the rapidly changing labor market.

Analytical and systems thinking are key skills that remain important in the modern world. These competencies not only help in solving complex problems, but also contribute to effective decision-making. Although their importance is not subject to sudden changes, their development can significantly improve productivity and the quality of work. The ability to analyze information and approach problems systematically is the foundation of success in various fields.

In recent years, there has been a growing popularity of skills in talent management, training and mentoring, and employee motivation. This trend is driven by opposing demographic trends. Some countries need qualified teachers to prepare new generations, while others need to maximize the effectiveness of the existing workforce, including the ability to transition employees to new roles. Such skills are becoming key to successfully adapting organizations to changing labor market conditions.

At the bottom of the list were skills that, according to the majority of respondents, may lose their importance. Among them:

• abilities related to the use of human senses (13%);
• reliability and attention to detail (named by 12% of respondents);
• reading, writing and arithmetic (in this survey, they were named both among those in demand and among those losing importance, but the second opinion was 4% more popular);
• dexterity, precision and endurance in manual labor (employers who believe that the demand for these skills is falling turned out to be 24% more than those who consider them in demand).

Experts from the World Economic Forum note that the conclusions about losses in in-demand professions are not unambiguous. There are specific areas in which skills that are losing popularity in the mass sector remain extremely necessary. For example, installing solar panels and servicing complex equipment require engineers not only to have a deep understanding of technology but also to perform tasks with high precision. Technological progress, in turn, only increases the need for such specialists.

How employers plan to retrain employees

According to employer estimates, 39% of employee skills will change by 2030. These skills will become less in demand and will be replaced by new, more relevant ones. This underscores the importance of constantly updating employees' knowledge and skills to meet labor market demands.

The share of employees who have been retrained appears significant, but previous reports forecasts were even higher: 44% in 2023 and 57% in 2020. Experts from the World Economic Forum (WEF) attribute the changes to the fact that by 2024, when the survey was conducted, more employees at companies participating in the study had undergone retraining—50%, compared to 41% in the 2023 report. This demonstrates the growing need for personnel to adapt to rapidly changing market conditions and new professional requirements.

Read also:

Five skills of instructional designers that are transformed as a result of the implementation Neural network technologies.

With the development of artificial intelligence and neural networks in education, instructional designers are facing changes in their key skills. First, the ability to work with data is becoming critical, as neural networks allow for the analysis of large volumes of information to create more personalized educational materials. Second, knowledge of the principles of neural networks and their capabilities helps instructional designers integrate these technologies into the educational process. A third important skill is creative thinking, necessary for developing innovative and interactive curricula. A fourth skill is critical thinking, which allows one to evaluate the effectiveness of neural networks in education and adapt approaches based on the results obtained. Finally, interdisciplinary collaboration skills are becoming increasingly relevant, as interaction with technology developers and other specialists allows for the creation of comprehensive solutions for the educational process. Thus, instructional designers must adapt to new challenges and leverage the opportunities offered by neural networks to improve the quality of education. Employers predict that the need for employee retraining will increase by 2030. This is due to rapid changes in technology and labor market demands. Employers recognize the importance of continuous training to maintain the competitiveness of their teams. With rapid technological advancement and the emergence of new professions, retraining will become an integral part of corporate strategy. Investments in employee professional development not only contribute to their increased skills but also improve the overall performance of the company. Understanding these needs will enable employers to adapt to changes and successfully cope with the challenges of the future.

• 59% of employees will require training;
• 29% will train and continue working in their current positions;
• 19% will change their role within the organization;
• 11% of employees will not be able to retrain by employers.

Considering the importance of skills development, employers identified three key policy measures that can improve the workforce situation. These measures are aimed at improving the skills of employees, aligning educational programs with labor market requirements, and stimulating vocational training. The implementation of such initiatives will help create a more competitive workforce and meet business needs for qualified specialists.

• funding retraining programs (55%);
• providing such programs (52%);
• improving the education system (47%).

According to surveys, 85% of participants plan to retrain employees. Half of them believe this will help redistribute staff within the company, allowing for the use of internal resources to fill vacancies. Employers in countries with aging populations are particularly supportive of this practice. Retraining is becoming an important tool for optimizing HR processes and increasing efficiency.

According to the latest data, 70% of employers expect to need to hire employees with new skills. However, the likelihood of successfully attracting such specialists from outside remains low: only 29% of respondents believe that talent availability in the labor market will improve by 2030, compared to 39% in 2023. Meanwhile, 43% of respondents noted that they will still look for a university degree when hiring candidates, but relevant work experience is mentioned twice as often. These trends remain stable compared to the results of a survey conducted two years ago.